The European Commission on Monday lowered the growth forecast for the Spanish economy 4% this year and 3.4% next year, After the Russian offensive, energy tensions, with gas prices skyrocketing and a harsh review by the Spanish executive himself, Brussels has cooled its calculations for the course by more than a point and a half compared to the month of February , and an additional point in 2023, to be somewhat less optimistic than Moncloa. Overall, our country will be one of the best performing countries in the whole union, after Ireland and Portugal, thanks to the fact that the decline in previous years (10.8% in 2020) was not recovered. completeness.

community technicians hope that Unemployment continues at 13.4 and 13% respectively, practically twice the EU average and just behind Greece, but the best data since 2008. They calculate inflation at 6.3% for this year (in full line with the Eurozone average) but a decline of 1.8% in the next. and a Deficit of 4.9% and 4.3% in 2022 In 2023, far above what Moncloa promised. In a macro table sent to institutions two weeks ago, the Treasury set a path down to 3.9% in 2023, 3.3% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025.

The difference for this year is almost one digit, as Spain is confident that both the development and the collection will be much better. Community experts talk about exactly this income, but point to a potentially destabilizing factor: the revaluation of pensions. “In 2023, the public deficit is expected to continue to decline (4.4% of GDP), reflecting dynamic economic growth and moderation in spending that offset the gradual return of revenues to their traditional elasticity. However, the index of pensions More may arise. If inflationary pressures persist, so does the expected spending,” the document clearly stated. This topic is one of the most sensitive in regular interactions with Brussels in terms of approval of the next disbursement and meeting the milestones.

“Economic recovery in Spain is expected to continue despite the mess created by the war against Ukraine. Investment in the framework of European funding and the recovery of the tourism sector should support growth over the forecast horizon. Headline inflation projected to peak in mid-2022 and an average of 6.3% in 2022. The labor market is expected to remain strong, with the unemployment rate at its lowest level since 2008, and an improvement in the general government’s balance, helped by strong revenues,” he says.

The Stability and Development Treaty sets a maximum deficit of 3%, but fiscal rules in the EU are frozen and it is unclear when they will be reactivated. It was expected later this year, but the aftermath of the Russian invasion is an open debate. Our country will not return to the sanctioned limit until 2025, but it is not clear at what point the Commission can open the process of excessive deficits, if at all.

In November, in winter projections, technical services expected Spain to close 2021 with GDP growth of 4.6%, that it would improve an additional 5.5% this year and maintain a good pace around 4.4% in 2023 Will keep In February, as the war began, he raised the previous year’s closing estimate to 5% and even raised the 2023 one-tenth to 5.6%, leaving it at 4.4% for 2023. But today, in line with the entire European Union, after three months of invasion and an energy crisis looming, the hack has become widespread.

Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni’s team has cut expected GDP growth to 2.7% this year and 2.3% across the EU next year, and expects inflation to close the year at 6.1%, if well. So it is confident that in 2023 it will drop to 2.7%. , high levels for those seen in the last decade, but much more controlled.

In late April, in a sustainability program sent to Brussels, the Spanish government had carried out one of the most remarkable reform exercises in recent days, slashing its growth forecast by nearly three points to 4.3%. The European Commission was going to do the same, it was clear. Spain is suffering like everyone else, although it is The slowest country in the whole union in recoveryBecause it doesn’t expect pre-pandemic levels until the first half of next year, when most partners are already in place.

Same goes for loans. Brussels expects a three-digit decrease compared to 2021, but according to the projected path, the course will end with 115.1% of GDP, falling to 113.7% in 2023. They are extremely high levels, almost twice as determined by stability. Compromise, but light years away from 185% of GDP in Greece or 147.9% in Italy. Portugal is the only country ahead of us, France or Belgium below 115%, but close.

Optimism about tourism, but doubts about inflation

“The Spanish economy maintained momentum in early 2022, but supply disruptions and rising inflationary pressures in the context of the war have slowed economic activity since late February. As a result, real GDP grew 0.3% quarterly. -Quarter-on-quarter growth -The first quarter was held back by a strong contraction in private consumption, compared to 2.2% in the previous year quarter. More slowdown is expected in the second quarter (0.1%) because of persistent barriers to development,” says the EU analysis.

The Commission has emphasized in its report that the reactivation of tourism activity has been the main engine of economic growth since the summer of 2021 and is expected to maintain its momentum in 2022. Similarly, it believes economic growth will pick up from the summer of 2022. The third quarter of 2022 thanks to “rapid implementation of investments under the Community Recovery Plan and some reactivation of private consumption”, backed by some “labor market strength and savings accumulated during the pandemic”, should at some point be invested can be converted into. However, the technicians warned, “It is expected that In the context of high inflation and falling real wages, the decline in the purchasing power of households as a burden, Private consumption is projected to remain below its pre-pandemic levels over the “forecast horizon”, that is, until at least 2024.

Our country is aware of the effects of war like all others, tremors In the global production chain, the closure of Chinese ports due to COVID or energy problems, but Spain has seen a sharp rise in energy prices compared to most Eurozone countries. “Further increases in prices could affect activity especially Sectors such as transportation, construction and power-intensive industries, In consumption and investment, decisions may be postponed until the current disruptions are over and private consumption may be affected by the persistent effect of inflation on the purchasing power of households, particularly in the lower income bracket. in part. distribution”, says the document published this Monday. On the positive side, Spain is the country most advanced in requesting and disbursing European funds, so the effects should be seen before the rest of the continent, with more investment in some sectors and Promote wider impacts.