According to the International Energy Agency, electricity generation in 2029 will be 32%, 20 points below the requirement. Only the EU will comply by region.
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Most carmakers are not moving at the pace required by climate change targets, for example, wanting to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees as established by the Paris Agreement. A study by consulting firm InfluenceMap based on car production forecasts prepared by IHS Markit follows Within the framework of the strategy set out by the International Energy Agency (IEA) last year.
particular, Of the 12 large builders analyzed, only one (the American Tesla) fully conformed to the environmental roadmap. And with the German Mercedes-Benz only this last company, expect a fast enough transition. To adhere to the 1.5 degree limit, which would require global production of electric vehicles to be 52% in 2029 (see attached graph) and 57.2% in 2030.
japan in line
Far from that reality, Influence Map experts predict this percentage will be down 20 points in 2029, 32% of the total and the rest, cars with combustion engines. This would force a tougher effort for the industry Since it will have to increase the volume of zero-emissions model by 80% in the 2029 fiscal year. At least 25 million additional vehicles, almost entirely 100% battery-powered, as fuel cell technology are considered testimonials only.
BMW is behind Tesla and Mercedes-Benz (45% of the total); Volkswagen Group (43%), Stellantis (40%); Ford (36%); Renault (31%); General Motors (28%) and Hyundai (27%). in the last posts and With great difficulties to reach the target, the big three Japanese: Nissan (22%), Honda (18%) and Toyota (14%), will continue to give most ground to hybrid models.
And it is that the authors of the work put a contradiction on the table. On the one hand, the degree of commitment of manufacturers to climate change, which is reasonable or high, except in the case of three Japanese companies. But, at the same time, the majority opposes regulations aimed at the gradual elimination of cars with combustion engines.
This last link with one of the conclusions of the work, which we must not forget, is a global focus. It is a direct link between the decarbonization policies of each region with respect to automobiles and the local production of zero emission vehicles. The case for the paradigm is Europe, which is about to approve a 2035 ban on the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles, including hybrids. In addition, the CO2 reduction target for the middle of this decade has been tightened. The impact is clear: the European Union will be the only region in the world to meet the objectives with 59% of the total output of the emission-free model in 2029.
shows continuity China, First world market for vehicles and also for battery powered models. In this case, the Influence Map estimates that subsequent volumes will grow from 12% of the total in 2021 to 40% by the end of the decade. However, the consultants also point out that they have not been able to assess the commitment of local manufacturers to climate change and leave more detailed studies for later.
Requirements in the US or Japan are more lax and this is reflected in global statistics for each region and in the manufacturers operating in those regions. For example, in Europe 49% of cars manufactured by Toyota in 2029 will be battery-powered, but only 3% in the US. And Ford, which doesn’t even make the cut globally, will move to 65% of electrics in the old continent.
where it is possible or necessary
This is something the industry does not hide. Mercedes-Benz and Renault, citing just two cases, have already said they want Markets that allow or require a fleet 100% free of emissions in 2030 should be added. Which means that there will be areas of the planet that will become markets where cars with combustion engines will be sold and end up paying, if so, investing in them.
thus it is expected 10 years from now, 91% of total production in India will be conventional cars; 92% in Africa and 97% in the case of South America.
SUVs are on the rise
The work also highlights a contradiction in the behavior of the makers. And this is the attachment they will continue to have for SUVs or vehicles with an SUV body. Currently, they are by far the favorite of customers and have about six out of 10 registrations in Spain in 2022. These are larger and heavier vehicles, therefore more inefficient and counterproductive to reduce global warming.
But despite this, IHS Markit estimates that Its world market share will not stop growing: from the current 39% it will increase to 47% at the end of the decade.
Ultimately, IEA recommendations Introduced a year ago to help decarbonization, they not only consider boosting the production of zero-emissions vehicles, which has been emphasized in this study. They also point to other measures such as low speed limit to save fuel; Establishment of low emission zones Like those arriving in Spain in 2023; Greetings! Creation of congestion charges discouraging the use of private vehicles Supporting other mobility options such as cycling or public transportation.
according to the norms of