Frankish electoral system A confusion that sometimes fosters all kinds of nonsense and contradictions, For example, Vote four times in two months, two to elect the President and the other two to elect the Parliament, and that the result is opposite. Or endorse one candidate to preside over the country and two weeks later vote for another who is hated but who is the lesser evil, as the double-round system classifies the two most voted. Or that an applicant is about to arrive at Alsoo and then has almost no representatives in the assembly.
This happened with centrist Emmanuel Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen in the most recent presidential elections in April, and now, with the legislative elections taking its first round today, it may be that The French elect a parliament that makes it difficult for the president they voted for two months ago to remain in office, Or that a candidate who was eliminated in the first election round becomes prime minister: Jean-Luc Mlenchon.
In this uncertain and real context, France returned to the elections. long sign on english vowelre-elected president in April, You may find yourself with an impossible scenario to handle If the dominant coalition, the Ensemble, does not obtain a majority, as elections actually indicate. In these places he was tied with the Nupes, a leftist group headed by the leader of the rebel France, Mélénchon.
If Macron loses his current absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 out of 577 seats) There will be serious problems in implementing its reforms. During his second and last term in Elseo. Avoidance, which was already a record in presidential elections, can exceed 50% in these elections, indicating voter boredom.
Absolute majority is in danger and there is a fragmented assembly will cause a lot of instability Politics at such an important geopolitical moment, explains Alfonso Muerza, director of political marketing at the International University of Valencia.
I want to alert the French of the importance of the decisions they are going to make. The election of public representatives is decisive. The fate of France will depend on the balance drawn up in the Assembly and the daily life of each. That’s why these days are important moments for France, Macron himself warned a few days ago.
It’s not Marine Le Pen who rocked the election this time But the leader of the extreme left, Jean-Luc Mlenchon, the hero of these legislative elections, one of the great surprises of this election spring in round four. He hadn’t been invited to the party just two months ago and wasn’t expected to put on that much weight.To the point there is talk that he could be prime minister, recalls Muerza.
At the age of 70, he ran for the presidency in one last attempt before leaving politics. Despite all odds, she finished just one point behind Marine Le Pen in the first round of the election. They were not graded, but they are the most voted leaders in university centers in important cities such as Marseille or Toulouse and In the most vulnerable areas on the outskirts of Paris and with the majority of immigrants, It has become an election event.
The candidate has managed to unite all those frustrated voters with a macro whom they accuse of being arrogant and running away from street problems, and in these legislative has achieved something unusual like uniting the Left in one candidate: Nupps, a coalition of rebel France, Ecologist, Socialist Party and Communist Party.
If this group gets the most votes Ask to be prime minister. There will be a coalescence that doesn’t happen often, says Muerza, and that will complicate things greatly, as it will force Macron to look for specific compromises in a highly fragmented assembly, creating tremendous instability.
In France, the head of state is the one who designs the country’s reforms and the prime minister executes them after they are approved by the assembly. Therefore, it is difficult to see the centrist and Europeanist Macron as a speaker in an already left-majority assembly. Eurosceptic Mlenchon as an anti-system and prime minister.
If the head of state does not control the National Assembly, he does not govern. Cohabitation makes the president a political opponent of the government, given that he has been elected with a program and majority, which has been disapproved by legislative elections, according to political scientist Jean-Nol Ferry, at the National Center of Research (CNRS). Director of Research says. its abbreviated form in French).
The French electoral system plans successive presidential and legislative elections in order to protect the result of the former and to avoid this cohabitation between the President and the Assembly of various political persuasion. This has happened only a few times in the history of the Fifth Republic, precisely because It is rare that the person who voted for Macron now votes for someone else.,
Even then Reference this time indito. Is: Traditional parties (Republicans and Socialists) were virtually eliminated in the presidential elections and extremes are on the rise: Marine Le Pen achieved his best result in April and Mélénchon came within a point of eliminating him. Between the two they added over 40% support.
Macron has launched a mandate steeped in apathy. He elected the government late and two of his ministers have already been in controversies. One of Solidarity, Damien Abad, is accused of rape, while the head of the interior, Gréald Darminin, had to explain the chaotic apparatus during the Champions League final that exposed one of France’s biggest problems: that of insecurity and integration. Problems in neighborhoods where the majority of the population is of immigrant origin. There they vote for Mlenchon.
For now, the president is under fire, though. s has put forward that among the most immediate reforms One of the key issues of the presidential campaign is a law to improve the purchasing power of the French. Go to that new parliament at the end of June. Pension reform is one of his most controversial projects and will be opposed in an adversarial assembly.
has also progressed reformed education and said it would create a resettlement council, A body that, immediately after these elections, must bring together political, economic and social forces to promote reforms affecting purchasing power, the environment or institutions.
One of the keys is to understand that this vote It’s like 577 mini pollsOne per constituency, due to the way the French system is set up. It’s the government ministers who play itBecause if they are not able to win in their constituencies they may be left out, Muerza says.
This is the prime minister’s case. lisabeth bourne, which is presented by Calvados and whose future depends on the result. Mélenchon has already said that if his coalition wins, Macron will have to displace it and appoint him as prime minister and thus give voice to the elections. The President has marked the red line: No political party can impose a name on the President.
If Mlenchon gets a good result, stopping him from claiming cohabitation would be a victory, says Muerza, who recalls We’ll have to look at the post-election route of the Knupps coalition, as it was designed to campaign And it is created by parties that otherwise would have disappeared.
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Another unknown of these elections is the duties Le Pen will receive. The electoral system makes it easier to lay siege there and in the second round voters from other parties can vote against the far-right in constituencies where it is only to stop it. This electoral system hides, but does not eliminate, the reality of France: the rise of the extreme rightMuerza says.
The system allows this correction because it rewards a vote of disapproval more than a vote of conviction. This explains how it is possible that a person who has reached the second round of presidential elections twice has only a dozen delegates out of 577, he says, referring to Le Pen.
The strange thing is that now it is Mlenchon who has a chance to become prime minister when he didn’t make it to the second round of the election, And the extreme right, who won, has a handful of deputies.
Violence, insecurity and a possible trip to Kyiv
These first months of the presidential mandate have been marked by France’s classic problems: insecurity in the Champions League final in Saint-Denis and a lack of integration in these cities. Controversy escalated when it became known that recordings of Stade de France security cameras had been removed. Police violence has also been at the center of debate after the shootings by some agents in Paris a few years ago and the killing of the police by Jean-Luc Mlenchon. Internationally, Macron has announced that he will travel to Romania and Moldova next week and may head to Kyiv.
according to the norms of