If the conflict narrowed the scope of the suspension of Russian energy imports, it would mean lower growth of between 0.8% and 1.4%.

• Straight All the last hours of the war in Ukraine
• political settlement EU agrees to sanctions on Russian oil this year, but only partially and with further exemptions

According to an article published by the Bank of Spain, a hypothetical complete cessation of trade relations between Russia and the European Union due to the invasion of Ukraine would have the effect of a 1.8% decline of GDP on Spain’s economy.

If the conflict were to narrow the scope of the suspension of Russian energy imports, the damage to the Spanish economy would result in a GDP decline of between 0.8% and 1.4%, and a rise in inflation by between 0.8 points and 1.2 percentage points. The first year compared to a scenario without such restrictions.

With Russian supply cuts, the branches of the Spanish economy that will face a more pronounced decline in their output will be some that consume more energy, such as transportation, heavy manufacturing or the chemical industry. On the other hand there will be some service branches, such as real estate, whose activity will hardly be affected.

For the article’s author, Javier Quintana from the Bank of Spain’s Deputy General Directorate of Economy and Research, the intensity of the impact of the Russian energy supply cuts will be skewed among European Union (EU) countries depending on their energy dependence of that country. does.

If a hypothetical interruption in energy imports from Russia for Spain would have an impact of between 0.8% and 1.4% on GDP in the first year, it would in this case speak volumes about the ability of European economies to substitute Russian energy sources. Depends on the assumption made. For other European economies, the blow will be between 1.9% and 3.4% for Germany, 1.2% and 2% for France, and 2.3% and 3.9% for Italy. The impact on the EU as a whole would be between 2.5% and 4.2% of GDP.

A hypothetical cessation of remaining trade flows with Russia would have additional negative effects on European economies, although its magnitude would be much less than the suspension of imports of energy raw materials.