The elections in Andalusia are like this: PP, on the way to historic victory in the traditional socialist barn

The average of the polls, including the CIS, consolidates Moreno and puts him close to an absolute majority.


Andaluca begins its run for elections this Friday and does so with a clear platform people’s party Juanma Moreno who is clearly consolidated in the polls as the winner of the election. The current Andalusian President will receive 35.5% votes According to the average of all the surveys published so far. An outcome that would not only allow them to re-validate their position for another four years, but would also mean an electoral turnaround in this autonomous community after more than 35 years of socialist victories.

World Compiled all the polls published since last December on Andalusian elections and they all show an upward trend of PP, which will increase by more than 15 points compared to the 2018 regional ones, in which Moreno was not voted the most But Susannah Daz, although ultimately socialist, could not rule. If the predictions come true, the popular candidate will gain political choice in the community and the only unknown that will remain in the air is whether he alone will obtain the necessary majority to rule.

A good portion of forecasters agree that the Andalusian PP will rely on Vox to win an absolute majority and possibly form a government. However, two surveys released this week paint a more optimistic picture for popular, According to vote estimates collected by the Sigma dos poll for this newspaper, Juanma Moreno’s party would be voted the most. 36.1% of support And a limit of between 46 and 50 deputies, which with the seats of Ciudadanos (2–3) could add up to 53, saving the current government the coalition by only two votes. complete majorityMarked in 55 seats.

In this episode, Andalusian barometer predicts a more comfortable victory for the PP which will receive between 47 and 49 deputies (eight or six of the absolute majority) and 39.2% of the vote, 15 points above the PSOE, which will be the second force. In both cases, Moreno could propose a minority government by adding more MPs to the PP than all leftist formations.

The analysis by this newspaper includes 20 surveys published by 12 communication media (some have published two in the past month) and 11 conducted by polling companies (there are companies that conduct surveys for different media).

The weighted average of the analyzed polls offers this result, from highest to lowest percentage of votes: PP (35.6%), PSOE (25.2%), Vox (15.3%), Por Andaluca (8.6%), Adelante Andaluca ( 4.1%), ciudadanos (4%) and Andaleus leventados (0.4%).

The elections also show the loss of support in the progressive part due to the fragmentation of the Left. PSOE, now led by Juan Espadas, will face the party’s second-worst result in the region. About four years ago and under the leadership of Susanna Diaz, the Socialists won 27.95% of the ballots. The average of this time’s elections tells the former mayor Seville 25.2% votes.

Among the parties presented as an alternative to PSOE, the forecasts are not encouraging. break between We can do it And in the last Andalusian elections the mark of the formation of the purple color, Adelante Andaluca, is reflected in the elections. If in 2018 Adelante Andaluca, led by the group Theresa Rodriguez 16.18% of the vote was received, this new election date it would not exceed 4.7%. to combine Andaluca. Bywho protects Yolanda Daz and who brings together United LeftWe can do it, Ms. No You Greens-Equa, the forecasts are not so clear. Although the leadership of the group inma neito Having experienced a surge in polls since the beginning of May, polls published in the past week are not so illuminating. While the Sigma DOS survey gave it 10.5%, Centra (Center for Andalusian Studies) gave it barely 6.6% in its latest barometer.

There are a number of elections that agree that citizens will be left without representation in the regional parliament. The one who was a partner of the government till now will go from having 21 lawyers to none. In the opposite case, one of the parties with the best vote forecasts is Vox, as it happened in Castile and Leon And that today could be crucial to Andaluca’s future. The formation now headed by Macarena Olona could get 20 seats and 15% of the vote and emerge as the third force in parliament.

Even the CIS, which usually votes in the opposite direction to the average in private elections, gave yesterday’s pre-election barometer a comfortable victory for the popular: with 35.6% of support, the public body voted the PP. Gave more than ten. PSOE (25.2%) and marks up to 49 seats. The strong growth of Vox (15.3%; 17–21 seats) and resistance from Ciudadanos closed the door for the left in the CIS to be able to articulate an alternative.

Ciudadanos could be a key piece if Moreno’s government tries to steer clear, according to a public body poll. junta in solitude. CIS gives Oranges A vote intention of 4.1%, which would allow the party to have between one and three deputies in the parliament of Andalusia, despite the severe decline predicted by the poll.

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